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Fed

Daily Commentary

Market Loved, Hated the Fed Decision

Bycjrosen June 25, 2008

As evidenced by today’s intraday price action, you’d think the market either had schizophrenia or was potentially bi-polar.  Once the decision to hold interest rates unchanged at 2%, the market swung sharply four times before settling down for the close.  Was there any chance of profit in this volatilty?  Let’s look. The NASDAQ QQQQ ETF:…

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Daily Commentary

Watch What the Fed Says, Not What it Does Today

Bycjrosen June 25, 2008

Today’s decision will be more about tone than action – about words than a policy decision. The Fed is expected to keep overnight rates locked at 2%, though some may begin to discuss the threat of inflation on the economy, and may be trying to “jawbone” or threaten action if inflation numbers continue to be…

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Market Education

Current Yield Curve Turns Bullish

Bycjrosen May 7, 2008

Although it’s not discussed extensive, the Yield Curve has now normalized to levels that have historically preceded large bullish moves for the overall market. The last time this pattern occurred was in 2003. Bill Luby at VIX and More recently identified this pattern as well with a good, brief analysis in his post “The Yield…

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Daily Commentary

Stunning Intraday Action

Bycjrosen April 30, 2008

How did you do on today’s Fed day?  Days like this can remind us why volatile conditions can either be very rewarding or very draining for your account.  Let’s see what happened and where the dust settled: On the intraday chart of the DIA, the Fed announcement (they cut .25 to 2.00%, as expected) came…

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