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Daily Commentary

Rounded Reversal Underway in Stocks

Bycjrosen March 4, 2009

I highlighted this possibility last night to a few people but now it appears confirmed that the US Stock Market – as described in the DIA – is completing a short-term (intraday) Rounded Reversal Pattern that appears to be setting up a counter-trend rally. DIA 15-min: If anything, this serves as an excellent example of…

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Daily Commentary

A Quick Chart Look at Apple AAPL

Bycjrosen March 4, 2009

Apple Inc (AAPL) has been holding its own throughout the recent market downswing from February, showing relative strength to the S&P 500.  Let’s look at Apple’s Weekly Structure (using basic Elliott Wave) and also a key support level on its Daily Chart. Apple (AAPL) Weekly: Apple is likely coming off an ABC Corrective Three-Wave phase…

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Daily Commentary

A Look Back at US Steel

Bycjrosen March 3, 2009

US Steel (X) was a grand beneficiary of higher commodity prices in general, but just as its share price ran up in the commodity bubble that ended in 2008, price fell to levels few thought possible.  Let’s take a look at the monthly chart – containing a near ideal Elliott Wave pattern – and more…

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Uncategorized

Resolution of the 1937 Dow Bear Market

Bycjrosen March 3, 2009

What happened directly after the Dow Jones Index completed its 5-Wave downwards pattern from 1937 – 1938?  And might the same thing unfold in today’s market?  Let’s take a look. We had an ABC Up retracement that lasted about seven months that resulted in a 62% gain for the Dow Jones.  It also took prices…

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Daily Commentary

With SP500 at New Lows the VIX Has Room to Run

Bycjrosen March 2, 2009

With the S&P 500 at new lows not seen since 1996 – clearly surpassing those lows made in October and November 2008, you would expect the Volatility Index – or VIX – to be making new highs as well.  It’s not.  Let’s look at the VIX and see what clues it might be telling us….

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Daily Commentary

Amazing Similarities in Dow Jones 1937 and Today

Bycjrosen March 2, 2009

In charting, sometimes past is prologue.  There is a distinctly eerie similarity in the 5-Wave decline from the October 2007 highs today with what happened – almost identically – as the Dow peaked in early 1937 and bottomed out in April 1938.  It’s something you probably should examine, as it could resolve the same way…

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Daily Commentary

Longterm View of Crude Oil since 1990

Bycjrosen March 2, 2009

Crude Oil has come into a potential support area most traders might not be aware exists, but it’s evident from the long-term monthly chart.  Let’s see this structure and what might be in store for crude, barring any further unforseen developments. Crude Oil Monthly Chart: (Click for larger image) Crude Oil ($WTIC as the benchmark…

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Daily Commentary

Looking Inside Friday’s Intraday Reversal

Bycjrosen February 28, 2009

Friday was a monumental day in so many ways, primarily because the S&P 500 closed at a multi-year low.  Let’s step inside that intraday structure and see how the day developed and how we might have traded within the intraday timeframe. DIA 5-min chart: I’ll be honest – this was a very difficult day (at…

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Daily Commentary | Weekly Commentary

SP500 Support and Fibonacci off 1980s Low

Bycjrosen February 27, 2009

It’s on the chart permanently now – the S&P 500 officially closed February beneath the 2002 Bear Market lows – but let’s look beyond that.  Did you know the S&P 500 is at a very critical potential long-term Fibonacci support level?  Let’s see it on a Monthly chart that dates back to 1980. (You’ll definitely…

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Daily Commentary

Quick Elliott Wave Update on the SP 500

Bycjrosen February 27, 2009

Let’s take a quick look at the developing potential Elliott Wave Structure of the S&P 500, starting with the Daily Chart and then dropping to the 60-minute timeframe (mid-day update). S&P 500 Daily Chart: Without going into too much detail, price appears to be in Wave 3 of terminal Wave (5), with perhaps a few…

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