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Afraid to Trade

Month: May 2008

Daily Commentary

Dollar Rallies and Gold Falls

Bycjrosen May 2, 2008

In a twisting reversal of fate, the US Dollar Index is coming off new lows after building a potential base while gold prices are coming off new highs after a climax top and potential top formation. The intermarket relationships are in full force. Let’s look! Notice the ‘mirror image’ occurring in this post. That’s because…

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Major Index Gaps and Fills

Bycjrosen May 2, 2008

With my new Excel function, I’m able to go back and scan any type of gap and examine whether or not it filled or not. Let’s look quickly at large index gaps and see the odds of those filling. I tested the DIA (Dow Jones ETF) and looked at a variety of gap sizes from…

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Daily Commentary

Some Surprising Trend Day Action

Bycjrosen May 1, 2008

Perhaps unexpectedly, the market gave us a powerful trend day up today.  Let’s look at it and see where it leaves us in the broader picture: I’m showing the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) here for a proxy of the intraday action. Markets usually start a trend day by gapping, but this trend day snook up…

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Uncategorized

Gap Fade Stats for April

Bycjrosen May 1, 2008

With May 1st upon us, it’s time to look at the number of overnight gaps and gap fills in the DIA (Dow Jones ETF) for the month of April. I am testing for overnight price changes greater than $0.20 (20 Dow points) in the ETF. Of the 22 trading days in April, 14 resulted in…

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Daily Commentary

A Look Inside the Transports

Bycjrosen May 1, 2008

As I mentioned previously, the DJ Transportation Average is outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which generally is bullish for the overall market. Let’s peek inside the average to see which components of the Transports are doing the best. Let’s break it down into the Air Freight and Railroads, and their percentage performance since the…

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