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A Comparison of Recent “Unprecedented” Rallies in the Dow Jones

Bycjrosen

You may have been hearing commentaries about the “unprecedented” rally we’re experiencing that doesn’t seem to want to peak any time soon.

I thought it would be a good idea to look back on recent rallies from 1995 forward – using the Dow Jones as a proxy – and compare prior “non-stop” market rallies to the current rally phase off the March 2009 low.

While not earth-shattering, the charts did turn up some interesting observations. Let’s see them.

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Rounded Reversal, Dual Divergence, and Trendline Breaks SPY Intraday Mar 25

Bycjrosen

Wshew! The day’s not yet over, and we’ve already had a ‘dual negative divergence,’ Rounded Reversal, trendline fake-out, and a potential ascending triangle forming.

Let’s take a quick look at these set-ups and how they played out, along with where we are right now.

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Pure Price Trendline Look at the Recent SP500 Rally Boundaries and Feedback Loop

Bycjrosen

I often advocate pulling all the indicators off the charts – at least for a few minutes – and taking a ‘price purism’ look at any major price move.

This can give you clarity that others miss, especially if they are caught up in viewing what all sorts of indicators are saying. Indicators are important, but it’s helpful to assess the ‘character’ or structure of the market, which can be obscured by lines and oscillators.

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Breadth Comparison Between the 2007 Peak and the Current Rally

Bycjrosen

I’ve received quite a few responses from posting on the “Strange Similarities Between the 2007 Peak and Current Rally High” yesterday evening.

I wanted to show a chart based on a comment by a reader who highlighted that, although the price patterns were similar, the readings from internals – specifically those of the net new highs – were slightly different.

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Strange Similarities Between 2007 Peak and Current Rally High

Bycjrosen

In another “Hmm, That’s Interesting” post regarding prior market historical pattern, there is an eerie similarity in the rally that ended with the market peak in 2007 and the current rally into 2010.  Thanks to a blog reader for pointing out this comparison to me. Let’s take a look at the S&P 500 and Dow…

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Are We Setting Up Another Popped Gap Play Like March 9?

Bycjrosen

One thing I’ve been trying to highlight lately in these intraday ‘update’ posts is the repetitive character or nature of some of the price patterns that have occurred… which have been virtual road-maps to the future. And they always say “Those who do not learn from the mistakes of the past are doomed to repeat…

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Possible Mirror Image Pattern on Intraday SP500 SPY Mar 19

Bycjrosen

I always enjoy highlighting ‘mirror image’ or ‘measured move’ price patterns on charts, and we have the potential for a resolution to the downside to test prior support if the current price structure completes the ‘reflection’ portion of the pattern.

Main idea – let’s watch the price closely over the next few days to see if this chart pattern completes as expected:

A Peek Inside SP500 March Rally Market Internals

Bycjrosen

When assessing the strength or weakness of a recent market move – such as the ‘non-stop’ rally we’ve seen so far in March – it’s important to look beneath the price to see the signals from key Market Internals… and that’s what this post does.

Let’s take a look ‘under the hood’ to see how market internals have shaped the recent rally and what might be in store ahead.