Daily Commentary

I wonder when this market will ever gets its head on straight again or regain its footing, whether up or down. Typically, trend day ups do not follow a trend day down. Often, following any sort of trend day, price consolidates or can even trend a second day in the same direction. Rarely do you…

Friday was yet another major trend day down for the major US Indexes. Let’s look at some of the simplest trades you could have made within that intraday structure: The first clue that Friday would be a trend day (down) was the opening gap. Opening gaps do not always precede trend days, but the initial…

Crude Oil prices slipped off the recent $100 per barrel record, and are now completing a sell swing lower. But how long will the recent sell swing last? New price highs NOT confirmed by new momentum highs Resistance is clearly at $100 per barrel Rising trendline has been broken (beneath $96) Rising 20 period moving…

Apollo Group (APOL) has shown amazing relative strength in the current market environment, and has actually ‘launched’ to new highs not seen since 2005. Having nothing to do with space exploration, the Apollo Group is actually an educational ‘umbrella’ company, with subsidiaries such as the University of Phoenix and Insight Schools. It provides education at…

Despite all the bad press and media in terms of “recession” and “bankruptcies” as well as technical analysis pattern breakdowns, the market has shrugged off all this news and rallied strongly the last two days. Here’s a look at a “Swing Chart” I view in TradeStation: Despite being in a confirmed downtrend, and making new…

Apple Inc (AAPL) dealt some pain to traders who were short Apple stock or options today with a rambunctious end-of-day rally that took price where the proper ‘short-entry’ occurred. Typically, you want to short moving average (or support) breakdowns at the point of confirmation, or break-point, which would have been just above $180. My guess…

Today’s intraday action was quite nauseating, I thought, in terms of the early swing up, mid-day swing down, and then strong rally into the close. It made for an interesting chart, but also made many traders nautious. First, let’s pull the perspective back to the daily chart and then drill down: New Momentum Low New…

The market has behaved extremely poorly in 2008, but do you know how dramatic the decline has been for 2008? Let’s compare major US Markets on a percentage basis: Both the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, which are more volatile and have higher beta, often lead the market both up and down. If that is true…

Earlier, I highlighted a momentum divergence in the DIA (Dow Jones ETF) which resolved as expected to the upside. However, shortly after completing that divergence pattern and achieving its target, the market sold off extremely hard and beyond any technical analysis predictions. Notice that as price made lower lows on the intraday chart (which later…

As of Noon Eastern, a positive momentum divergence has been forming on the DIA (Dow Jones ETF) chart on the 15-minute time frame which could coincide with the potential for higher prices in the very near future. This bit of information is also in conjunction with monthly support levels and daily/weekly support levels. It appears…