Daily Commentary

It’s relatively rare when a monthly trendline or moving average is tested by the major US Stock Market Indexes, but we currently have the Dow Jones testing the rising 20 period moving average, which either reaffirms or threatens the strong uptrend that’s been in place since 2003 at the same time the S&P 500 appears…

As mentioned previously, early recognition of a trend day can lead to significant intraday profits, especially if you use leverage or margin. Today is showing signs so far of some of the conditions that precede trend days. First, we had the expected release of a major economic report which has been known to shock the…

Today’s action was a classic example of the “Trend Day” concept, where price swings carry the index value lower, and up-swings become key opportunities to ‘get short’ or re-establish a core position. DIA (Dow Jones ETF) 5-minute chart: We had a large momentum impulse to the downside to start the day, and the failure of…

While nothing is certain in the markets, if we use basic principles of technical analysis, it would appear that oil prices are expected to continue their uptrend higher, and there is no resistance in sight, but there are clear support levels beneath. First and foremost, trends – once established – have greater odds of continuation…

While 2007 was an up-year for the US stock market, 2008 is off to a rocky start so far. We saw the Dow Jones Index fall 100 points on Monday and 220 points today, taking price through a technical barrier and setting the stage for a potential technical breakdown. Let’s look at the Daily Chart:…

Traders have been anticipating the occurrence of the fabled “Santa Claus” rally, in which equity prices rise around the Christmas holiday, and it appears it has arrived just in the “nick” of time. Albeit the rally may not be to the magnitude traders want, but we are seeing a current upswing in price that has…

We’ve been waiting for this anxiously for months! The US Dollar Index is showing initial signs of strength, and has broken convincingly above resistance on the daily charts. Generally, a stronger dollar (or currency) is psychologically beneficial to the people of the nation, is not always best for all economic parts. For example, companies that…

Here is a sampling of the idealized swing trades that could have been taken for the index action (DIA) for Thursday, December 20, 2007. It was another “U-Turn Buy” day! As always, the FIRST play (trade) of the day when the index (Dow Jones in this case) experiences a gap of less than 100 points…

Last week, I mentioned the consolidation triangle which was forming in Goldman Sachs (GS), and this week, it appears the downside resolution of that pattern is underway. Clear triangulation (consolidation) pattern broken to the downside Volume is confirming (rising) this break Momentum (oscillator) also triangulated, and has broken further to the downside (momentum leads price)…

Hopefully the human Michael Baker has not fallen off a cliff, but the stock/company (BKR) has indeed done so recently. We saw a prior healthy uptrend that took prices into the ‘stratosphere’ via the three impulse day move of early September. As usual, ‘what comes up must come down’ and so we have the reaction…