Major Markets and Futures Returns Year to Date June

Jun 8, 2010: 1:47 PM CST

Half the month has passed, so what has your commodity done?

Or more specifically, how have the major markets performed with half of 2010 down?

FinViz has a great visual tool under their FinViz Futures tab – performance – that shows us at a glance how the major (and minor) markets have performed so far:

As of June 7th’s close, what’s been the best and worst returning market so far?  No, it’s not the Euro for the worst or gold for the best.

The best futures market performer has been Lean Hogs (huh?) in 2010, which is up 18% year to date.

Finishing in a close second, Feeder Cattle.  That means livestock – so far – has been the best investment.

Which futures markets have performed the worst?  It looks like the other agricultural products.

Sugar is down almost 50% this year (ouch), followed by oats with a 29% decline and rough rice, wheat, and corn all declining 20%.

But what about the MAIN markets – you know – the ones you hear about in the news all the time?

Glad you asked:

The US Dollar Index and Gold Prices – both risk aversion assets (safety/protection plays) are up 13% so far this year.

Not far behind are the 30-year Bond and 10-Year Note prices, also risk-avoidant/protective assets for investors.

The broader US Equity Markets are all down roughly 5% for the year.

Finally, Crude Oil, unlike Gold, is down so far 10%.

And last but not least, it’s no surprise that if the US Dollar Index is one of the top performers in the major markets, the Euro Index would be one of the worst – losing 16.5% of its value.

Even if you don’t trade these exotic markets, it’s important to know where the top and bottom performers are so we can assess broad/global risk seeking or risk avoiding behavior.

As of June 7th, 2010, the trend is clear:  Investors are seeking SAFETY.  That’s likely to be the case as long as global fears of economic instability plague Europe and even China.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
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3 Responses to “Major Markets and Futures Returns Year to Date June”

  1. David Woloschuk Says:

    What effect is the quarter end having on the silliness and volatility in the market now with expiry next week and triple witching , etc

  2. Corey Rosenbloom, CMT Says:

    It probably – certainly – has an effect, but I think there are so many global economic cross-currents that are far more important than the expiration that is approaching.

  3. theyenguy Says:

    Corey, this is a helpful report.

    The fall of four major currencies and oil reflects that debt deflation is now underway.

    The chart of fxe, bnz, fxb ,fxs, fxa, uup shows that the Euro, the New Zealand Dollar, the British Pound Sterling, the Swiss Franc, and the Austrian Dollar are all poorly performing currencies.

    The Euro, FXE, and the British Pound Sterling, FXB, have fallen on sovereign debt concerns; the Swiss Franc, FXS, on continual buying by the Swiss Central Bank; the New Zealand Dollar, BNZ, and the Australian Dollar, FXA, on yen carry trade disinvestment in base metals, basic material, metal manufacturing stocks as well as a threatened second tax on miners.

    Oil, USO, which had captured a significant carry trade investment has sold off on yen carry trade disinvestment.

    Agricultural commodities, JJA, has fallen significantly.

    The European sovereign debt crisis has stimulated debt deflation resulting in global asset deflation: we have entered into Kondratievv Winter.

    The beneficiary of a dollar carry trade has been a demand for US Government debt as seen in the chart of IEF, TLT and ZROZ.

    With regard to stocks, the stock market turned from bull to bear on April 24, 2010, resulting in significant gains to those short the market with ProShares 2X inverse ETFs; the Finvis Screener shows charts for SRS, SJH, SSG, EEV,S MN, SMK, BZQ, SIJ, EPV, FXP, SCO, JPX, and BOM

    A sell off in the financial shares IYG, IYF and EUFN has caused the financially sensitive small cap shares, the Russell 2000, IWM, to fall 15%, and has yielded a 37% return to those 200% short the Russell 2000 value shares with SJH.

    The European Sovereign Debt Crisis, has yielded a 37% return to those 200% short Europe shares with EPV.

    The credit tightening in China, has yielded a 36% return to those 200% short base metal commodities with BOM.

    An unwinding of yen carry trade investments in basic materials such as XME, SLX, OIH and XLE, has yielded a 35% return to those 200% short basic material stocks with SMN.

    Risk aversion to growth stocks, particularly semiconductors, SMH, has yielded a 34% return to those 200% short semiconductors with SSG.

    Debt deflation is evidenced by a sell off of the industrial shares, XLI, yielding a 34% return to those 200% short industrial shares with SIJ.

    The sell off of China, FXI, on credit tightening, the Japanese small companies, JSC, on a rising Yen, and carry trade disinvestment in hot markets such as Thailand, and Indonesia, has yielded a 33% return to those 200% short Asia with JPX.

    I expect any day a black swan event where there will be a liquidity evaporation, where investors may find it difficult to obtain funds in money market accounts and brokerage accounts; that is why I recommend gold coins as an investment.