Quick Cross-Market Check on the Fed Day Selloff
What does the current Cross-Market landscape look like after Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting/announcement?
Let’s take a look to see the current structure along with the big market winners and losers.
Here’s the intraday Cross-Market Landscape:
In a classic “Risk-Off” cross-market readjustment, stocks, gold, crude oil and commodities declined greatly while defensive markets Treasuries and the US Dollar Index (“risk-off” vehicles) surged.
All markets broke respective trendlines after the Federal Reserve announcement, which set-up a short-term trading opportunity that carried through into today’s session.
The over-simplified summary (from a Cross-Market landscape) can read as the following:
Economic conditions are deteriorating/serious concerns are increasing and as a result, the Fed will purchase longer-term Treasury securities as opposed to engaging in a balance-sheet increase via QE3.
Translation:
Economic conditions deteriorating: Bearish for stocks and commodities while Bullish for bonds
The Fed will purchase longer-term Treasury securities: Bullish for 10-Year and 30-Year Treasury Prices
The Fed will not expand its balance sheet/not engage in QE3 (yet): Bullish for the US Dollar Index
As we can see below from a glimpse of the TLT – 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF – the biggest benefactor of Wednesday’s announcement appears to be the longer-term bonds:
The bond funds TLT and IEF (7-10 year Treasury Fund) both broke-out sharply in August due to a sharp downturn in the stock market along with rapidly deteriorating economic news.
Price similarly broke nominal overhead resistance at $115 per share in part from “Operation Twist” and otherwise by a somber view by the Federal Reserve on economic conditions (“…significant downside risks to the economic outlook…”).
We’ll need to watch the respective cross-market price charts for further confirmation (continued price action) of these bigger-picture themes, but until we see otherwise, keep these simplified cross-market themes in mind.
Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com
Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade
Corey’s new book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available!
Best looking Bank Chart I have ever seen. Click it on and open in a New Tab. The Germans and DB must think this is 2008 all over again. As Yogi Berra said It is like Deja Vue all over again.
Left off the chart in lst comment somehow. See http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui…
I find your sites only today but it is very helpfull
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