Stepping Inside the Recent Intraday Bullish Volume Flow into Stocks

If you’re an intraday trader of stock market index futures or ETFs, you probably noticed visible surges of buy/bullish volume into these funds today and Wednesday.

Let’s zoom-in on this bullish volume action and put it in context of the critical higher timeframe support level at 1,300 in the S&P 500.

First, the SPY ETF Intraday:

The chart above is the 4-min (to show more bars than the typical 5-min) view of the intraday SPY (S&P 500 ETF) from Wednesday the 25th to Thursday May 26th.

I’ve highlighted periods of unusual surges in bullish/buy volume which has corresponded in all cases with sharp impulse rallies in the fund price.

This picture is similar in the other index ETFs – DIA (Dow Jones), QQQ (NASDAQ) and IWM (Russell 2000) – but is more evident in the SPY chart.

What the bullish volume action suggests is that large-scale funds are either scaling into positions or are removing hedges, or bears are taking profits/scaling out as the market pushes into the critical support level near 1,300 (in the S&P 500).

As long as this bullish activity continues, it suggests stock prices will rally higher off this inflection pivot.

Why might 1,300 be a very important “Make or Break” level for the market?

Let’s take a look at the basic Weekly Chart of the S&P 500:

The rising 20 week EMA rests currently at 1,309.65 – two insignificant points under the recent weekly low at 1,311.

When you combine the bullish surge in volume this week with the major inflection point of the 20w EMA – combined with the psychological “Round Number” at 1,300 – we have odds shifting back to the bullish camp in the evolving market structure.

Of course, a firm breakdown under 1,300 will send many of these buyers scrambling for the “sell/exit” button, but that hasn’t happened yet.

Instead, we’re seeing buyers put risk back on the table, as evidenced by the buy-volume inflows intraday as price tests this dual-confluence, critical inflection point in the index.

Based on these two simple facts, the market is back in the domain of the bulls unless proven otherwise with a breakdown under 1,300.

In other words, it’s once again the bulls’ game to lose.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

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