Bonddad Link: Storm Clouds on the Economic Horizon
I wanted to share a very thought-provoking and informative link to a post written by Hale Stewart of the “Bonddad Blog” entitled
“Storm Clouds on the Economic Horizon.”
In the post, Hale addresses the slight turndown in the April index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), which declined 0.1% unexpectedly.
He begins by discussing the unexpected ‘tick-up’ in initial unemployment claims and shows the following chart which indicates a flattening in trend instead of a continuation to the downside in New Jobless claims.
Since November 2008, the number of new jobless claims has flatlined between 450,000 and 500,000 as seen in the chart from Econoday:
In typical informative style, Hale also shows charts of the Euro, US Dollar Index, metals, and commodities.
He then discusses why the LEI Index ticked down unexpectedly in April.
It’s a lengthy, but very good read for those who are interested in delving behind the scenes on recent economic data.
Corey Rosenbloom, CMT