Caterpillar (CAT) has been forming a longer term triangle or compression pattern as seen best on the Weekly Chart, but let’s take a look at a Daily Chart Bull Trap and return within the larger pattern boundaries.
For traders, the stock may continue to set up range-based fading trades or an eventual breakout opportunity from this well-defined range.
Here’s the Weekly Chart Triangle:
I highlighted the horizontal “Value Area” that has developed within the broader Triangle Price Pattern boundaries.
The “Value Area” region extends from $81.00 per share to $87.50, which happens to be roughly in line with the current triangle pattern boundaries we can use as a reference for planning short-term or intermediate term strategies for trading the stock.
As long as price continues to “bounce” between these boundaries, very short-term traders can continue to play between the price boundaries accordingly.
Do keep in mind that eventually, price will break free of one of these boundaries in a breakout style impulse, which is where the longer-term trader may begin to focus attention or add this stock to a watch-list of future breakout candidates.
Here’s the pattern as seen on the Daily Chart, along with a recent “Bull Trap” that triggered last week:
We see a clearer picture of short-term trendlines that currently intersect the $86.50 and $82.50 per share boundaries.
Note also that the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) resides into the $87.00 per share boundary for an indicator confluence with price.
Unfortunately for buyers, Caterpillar (CAT) triggered a Bull Trap event last week on the collapse back under the upper trendline at the $87.00 level.
See the prior updates for additional insights and trading tactics for Bull Trap Outcomes:
For now, continue to focus on the alignment of the Weekly and Daily trendlines as we juggle the ongoing trading range (triangle) pattern with the likely future breakout of this well-defined compressing range.
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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com
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