A Quick Glance at Monthly Crude Oil

Bycjrosen

A couple of readers have asked about the Elliott Wave count on Crude Oil and I wanted to give a lengthy, multi-year view of the $WTIC Index to show the clean Elliott Count and possibility for the near future.

Monthly Crude Oil ($WTIC):


(Click for Larger Image)

A complete 5-wave Elliott pattern completed into mid-2008, with the recent major down-swing most likely being recorded as an “A” Corrective Wave.  It would appear currently that price has retraced back considerably and found key support about the $35/$40 level, which reflects the 200 month moving average and prior resistance at $40 (from two significant swing highs).

If this count is correct, then we would expect price to continue higher in a “B” Corrective Wave Rally which should be expected to find key resistance – via multiple timeframes – around the $70 per barrel range (if price makes it that far).

There appears to be open air (open chart space) up to that level (which is ‘only’ $20 away) so that seems the likely or logical chart play at the moment.

Reference last week’s post “A Quick Look at Crude Oil and the Dollar” for additional insights on the Weekly Chart and Fibonacci retracements the correlate with the $70 level.

Corey Rosenbloom
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter:  http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade
Register (free) for the Afraid to Trade.com Blog to stay updated

Similar Posts

Mid-Week Index Overview

Bycjrosen

Here are a quick charts of the Indexes: Holding the Bottom Bollinger Band Lurking above the 50 period EMA Market making new momentum lows Stochastic registering a buy signal Volume increased today on the sell-day… distribution Clear momentum divergence now unwinding Support should be 13,200 until it fails Has not reached bottom of Bollinger Band…

U-Turn in Dry Ships

Bycjrosen

The following technical price pattern is extremely rare, but is worth ‘filing away for further research’ when it appears. It has a variety of names, including ‘saucer bottom,’ “U-Turn,” etc but the pattern is defined by a slow and steady decline in price until an equilibrium (base) level is reached, and then demand picks up…

|

Price Percent Change Graphs of BP XOM and COP After Oil Spill

Bycjrosen

After a major incident involving the stock price of a particular company, it’s always interesting to take a look at competitor companies to see how the incident has affected the share prices of related companies. Did it have a similar affect across the whole sector… or was it contained to the price of one particular…

December 9 Monday Quick Check on Market Internals and SP500 Breadth

Bycjrosen

As we get the second week in December 2013 underway, let’s quickly update our readings on Market Internals, key levels, and what they reveal about the current picture of price action. Here’s the S&P 500 with index-specific Breadth (Advancers – Decliners in the S&P 500): We can start with the broader perspective from mid-November to…

4 Comments

  1. So no one chance of a pullback to 46 before the jump to 70? we are in the 10th day of just one direction in the oil´s price.

  2. I think odds are good that we could test the “Cradle” EMA Confluence (around $45) on the Daily chart – we are due for a pullback and that level would hold expected support. I can’t envision us going straight to $70 if we make it that far.

Comments are closed.